水资源承载力评价方法初探以及在“以水四定”中的运用

A preliminary study on evaluating method of water resources' carrying capacities of China and its application

关键词:  水资源承载力  以水定人  以水定地  以水定产  以水定城

Key words:  carrying capacity of water  regional development factors should be determined by water:population, the scale of cultivated land, the scale of industry, city scale

摘要:

在水资源趋紧和水需求增长的背景下，水成为经济发展的约束资源，亟待“以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产”，把水资源作为最大的刚性约束，推动用水方式由粗放向节约集约转变。为将“以水四定”与农业、生活、工业、城镇发展相对应，本文将“地、人、产、城”分别定义为耕地面积、人口规模、工业增加值总量、城镇建设用地面积。在此基础上，初步探索了水资源承载评价方法，引入了“综合定额”的概念，力求揭示耕地与主要农作物、工业与耗水行业的内在联系与计算规则。通过全国31个省区市的评价结果显示，浪费情景处于超载，节约情景有较大盈余，倒逼节水行动。在水资源承载最大规模下，全国仍有超载区，耕地超载呈中部“塌陷”，人口超载呈环状“倒塌”，工业超载呈区域性“沦陷”，城镇用地超载呈沿海少点“亏空”，该区域需要从水资源总量、结构、效率等方面提升承载规模。

Abstract:

Water resources' quantity is the most important constraining factor for the development levels of a society. Agriculture, population, industry, and town scales are four key factors which indicate the development levels of a society should be determined by water resources. This paper explores the evaluating method of water resources' carrying capacity of China, introduces the concept of "comprehensive quota", and tries to reveal the relations among cultivated land, main crops, industry, and water. The preliminary evaluating results of 31 provinces and municipalities of China show that waste of water is very serious in some areas and there is a lot of water-saving work should be done in the future. Even though evaluated at their largest water carrying capacities, a lot of areas are still in overloaded situation in the country. The overload of arable land is in the central part of the country. The overload of population is in an annular shape. The industrial overload is regional, and the urban land is overloaded while the coastal parts of the country are with a small "deficit". All of these overloaded areas need to improve their regional social carrying capacities in aspects of water resources, social structure and efficiency of industry.